Friday, January 6, 2012

Happy NY

Wow, it's been over 6 weeks since my last post?  Gosh I've been lazy-ass bastard...  But in defense it was the holiday season, and I've still yet to get my act together since the great collapse 4-5 months ago.  Ouch, the memory of that still stings... moral of the story don't fucking trade without fucking stops, you FUCKING IDIOT!! Haha...

Lots have happened since, the Euro's now down heaps ... trading around 1.28 from a high (?) around 1.40 only a few months ago.  Key themes are:
  • Europe - ongoing debt concerns / structural deficiencies = bearish outlook throughout the next 6 months.  ECB's not overly fussed about the declining of the Euro, points to previous historical low of 0.90.  Fear of contagion is running high, with record amounts (550B?) pushed into ECB's overnight facilities over the late-Dec/NY period.  Greece needing another bailout by March.  In the face of all this rubbish I can't see Germany wanting to hold on for another full year.
  • US - about to hit the debt ceiling (again), presidential elections in November, threatening Iran with war (oil's trading around $100 atm).  QE3 is a possibility (March?) which would sending gold and equities soaring = bearish but not at the expense of Euro at this point in time.
I recapitalised my trading account with $2k in November, and still trading small with 0.1 lots.  It stands at $2.9k.

Tonight is the first NFP for 2012.  I'm going to see Grandmaster Flash with the gf instead.

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