Based on present fundamentals and historic levels, EUR/JPY at 140 is too high in my opinion, as indeed is AUD/JPY at 110+, purely on basis of historic levels. On the other hand, from a very long term perspective, seeing USD/JPY back at 110/115 is not a stretch of the imagination at all.
In other words, I think at some stage very soon there will be excellent bearish trading opportunities in EUR/USD or AUD/USD: EUR/JPY at 130 and USD/JPY at 110 would mean EUR/USD back below 120; whilst AUD/JPY at 105 and USD/JPY at 110 would imply AUD/USD trading back near 95 cents. This is what I expect to happen over coming months.
My preferred way to play this strong USD trade is through USD/CHF and I’m hoping to get the timing right to build a long position for a move to 1.10.EURUSD is basically in a giant shitfight between EZ woes vs QE driven sentiment from USD & JPY.
EURUSD was rejected from the 3110 level last night (a strong confluence level), currently trades 3050-60.
Commerzbank:
CommerzBank $EURUSD Current position: Longs from 1.2908 exited 1.3110 Recommended trade: Sell at market, add 1.3120, 1.3145and place the stop for now at 1.3225. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Targets the 1.2679/61 zone. Medium term (1-3 months): Targets 1.2400 en route to the 1.2042 2012 low
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