Tuesday EURUSD news updates

Continuing to build core short position. At the moment, I think 1.3155 is where I will draw the line in the sand.

• (1:00AM) 1.3075 hit but no follow through, light stops there likely still intact
• Asian offers 1.3080-95 & cluster of strikes 1.3035,50 &65 exert bearish influence
• Recent bulls flashed a warning, RSI on 4 hour chart diverges now rolling over
• Bids still rest 1.3000-10 & 1.2960-80
• Stops are through 1.2960, if tripped s-t bulls likely throw in the towel       

• (11:00PM) EUR/USD firm as USD weakness permeates the mkt & EUR/JPY stagnant
• Break & hold above 1.3050 encouraging to bulls, light stops touted 1.3075
• Asian offers ahead of 1.3100 & stops likely above, bids 1.3000 & 1.2980-60
• RSI biased up, no divergence while USD yield advantage slips, a boost to EUR
• Mkt looks set to test 1.3110/35 res (Mar 8 & 15 high, 38.2% Fib)
• Beyond 1.3135 is key Feb 28 high (1.3163), break there opens up 1.3300 run       

• (10:00PM) EUR/USD boosted by strong EUR/JPY demand
• Talk Japan investors of European bonds also supportive
• Bears looking for selling opportunities on 1.3100 handle
• Plenty of technical resistance 1.3100-1.3150       

• (9:00PM) Still looking to converged avg objective at 1.3150-60
• Hearing large European investors entering tentative longs
• Asian cbs also underpinning the renewed confidence push
• FI markets also reflecting blase attitude to negatives
• We expect EUR affair to be a short term commitment
• Portugal austerity/Italy politics provide nt banana skins

• (5:30PM) Offers 1.3080, stops above. Offers 1.3100 and 1.3135-40, 50
• 1.3150-60 major turning point, expiries 1.30, 1.3050-60
• 30-Day upper Bolli 1.3148, 100DMA 1.3144, 55DMA 1.3156
• Subdued o/n market edged higher by EUR/JPY

• (3:00PM) 1.3050 stops hit earlier - 1.3050/60 strikes & leveraged sellers capped
• Profit taking ahead of 130.00 in EUR/JPY saw EUR/USD drift lower
• 1.3083 upper Bolli & 38.2% of 2013 fall @ 1.311 initial resistance
• 1.2962/66 - yesterday's low & 5dma support
• Fundamentals suggest 1.3080/10 is a sell zone - stop above 1.3150
• Chart: http://link.reuters.com/zex27t       

• (4:30AM) Top 4 global FX trading bank saw net EUR inflows last week, +2.6%, volume normal
• USD/JPY &  EUR/JPY were the primary drivers post BoJ
• EUR/USD over their books was small net sold -private clients sold most in 6 months
• Hedge funds bought EUR/CHF (Swiss outflow 12% but volumes 90% of normal)
• EUR/CZK was one source of EUR inflows (EUR/CZK +43.7%,but  light volume)
• SEK sold heavily, -14% net volume, 5% below normal, not noted but think EUR/SEK       

Commerzbank says more topside to come after last week's break above its 200DMA, 3- month downtrend and key-day bullish reversal. Now at 1.3032, she says allow for a move into the 1.3110-1.3180 area, possibly even 1.3225 before signs of topside failure appear. On the downside, strong support is the 200DMA at 1.2899