New week, no positions after that AUD disaster from last week. Blind luck got me out of that countertrend trade -- I was suffering from 10% drawdown at one stage (just couldn't pull the trigger on those losses). I got the sentiment, the timing, the levels all wrong...very lucky to get out at break even after the markets went spastic.

The Last Week:

* Central banks stick to the script on policy, but the market decides that Draghi is hawkish* USD never recovers from soft early week data* Another bad week for the N225, a good one for the JPY

Alright, new week new outlook. Here we go.

* Calendars slow down in the coming week, and FOMC members stand back ahead of the June meeting* JPY traders will continue to watch the N225, though the intervention threat grows sub 95.00.* 1.33+ was short lived on EUR/USD, but calling a top tends to be expensive

EURO

Barclays

• Euro calm to start the week and feels like it is going to do nothing exciting anytime soon. 1.3300/20 remains good resistance but the lack of selling interest makes it look like we continue to grind higher. Dip buying remains my favorite strategy for the moment
• German constitutional court ECB bond buying hearings, don't expect much but keep an eye out for headlines.
• I will look to buy today on a dip to 1.3230, stop below 1.3170 for a run above 1.33. 

Laidi

• When all is said and done, we expect the Fed to maintain its $85bn monthly purchases unchanged into the middle of the first quarter of 2014, and the ECB to slash interest rates to negative levels by year-end. This may imply a neutral-to-strong US dollar, but with a higher confidence level play in selling the yen against both the dollar and euro.

Goldman

• The EUR whilst sidelined trades pretty well. The alternatives to owning the dollar are currently very limited and the EUR ironically is perhaps at the top of the list. 
• The ECB is not engaging in QE, the notion of negative rates appears to be off the agenda and whilst Draghi will not welcome any currency appreciation the EUR should perform well on a cross basis. 
• Against the dollar though I think it’s a tougher call and expect us to trade within a 1.31/1.34 range until further notice. Whilst flexible I favour buying dips and in terms of today’s parameters expect initial support at 1.3220 and then at yesterdays 1.3177 low, whilst the next resistance hurdle is offered by the 1.3307 post ECB high.

Citi

• The price action says it all. Despite a move positive credit outlook on the US, EURUSD could not sustain sub 1.3200 and we have rebounded sharply to test again the 1.3300 level. 1.3300/1.3320 again remains critical resistance and a break through there looks like we could accelerate towards 1.3435. 
• On the day 1.3245/50 should be good support and for now I believe that should be the buy zone and we are in a short term uptrend. Another very quiet data day both sides of the Atlantic so underlying themes are likely to dominate.

UBS

• EURUSD BULLISH There is a strong resistance at 1.3342. A closing break above which would be positive over the longer term, opening 1.3520. Support is at 1.3178. 

Societe Generale

• If you look at the EA GDP deflator, a broader measure of price pressures in the economy, inflation has not been above 1.5%, never mind 2%, since late 2008... When you have Draghi breezily dismissing the disinflationary trend across the region, you understand that the downside risks to European growth have increased..We therefore expect further down-shifts to EA growth expectations going forward. 
• This would certainly follow the trend we have seen recently. SG economics believes that the response to weaker growth prospects is more likely to be an additional refinancing rate cut, than a negative deposit rate. 
• Consequently, SG economics expects a 25bp refi rate cut to be back on the ECB agenda by year-end. Should the ECB feel the need for further rate action beyond that point, we would expect forward guidance to be explored as a tool. We remain bearish euro."

JP Morgan

• EUR/USD our focus is now on key-Fib-support at 1.3120 (minor 38.2 %) which looks to be the decisive T-junction to distinguish between a still intact recovery to 1.3323/28 (weekly.-daily trend channels) and possibly to 1.3483 (minor 76.4 %) and the completion of a right shoulder top at 1.3305 on Friday. 

USD

Laidi

• When all is said and done, we expect the Fed to maintain its $85bn monthly purchases unchanged into the middle of the first quarter of 2014, and the ECB to slash interest rates to negative levels by year-end. This may imply a neutral-to-strong US dollar, but with a higher confidence level play in selling the yen against both the dollar and euro.

UBS

•  USDJPY BEARISH Upside will be viewed as corrective and unwinding the overextended downside conditions. Resistance is at 99.36 ahead of 100.40. Support is at 99.63 ahead of 

JPY

Barclays

• BoJ disappoints overnight as they don't "over deliver" this morning and make no change to their current easing policy.
• Order book: Now a better net buyer down to 97.00, topside is dominated by light stop loss buying but nothing of significant size.
• Sprint's vote on the Softbank offer (raised by 1.5 bio overnight) pushed back to June 25.
• Market remains fairly choppy and with BoJ out of the way back to data watch mode. Nothing major on the radar today, retail sales and claims Thursday. Preference to buy a dip into mid to low 97.00's..

Citi

• After a stronger close in USDJPY yesterday after S&P upgraded the US outlook, price action has tailed off again after the BoJ announcement where the CB kept monetary policy unchanged. They pledged to increase the monetary base at annual pace of JPY60-70tn and upgraded their assessment of the economy.  
• The knee jerk reaction weighed on both USDJPY and the Nikkei and selling interest ensued with USDJPY, posting a low of 97.78. Since then both have recovered and we open the London session of a firmer footing around 98.25 and net buyers have been noted off the lows and the price action looks more upbeat. The BoJ press conference will begin at 7.30 with nothing untoward expected from Kuroda and USDJPY  is unlikely to break out of the 97.70-99.30 range for the day.

JP Morgan

• Given the massive setback the JPY ran into since Friday the general conviction is certainly that the broader downtrend has been resumed. But for the latter to be confirmed and in order to eliminate the risk of just performing a countertrend B-wave rally it would take decisive breaks above minor 76.4 % retracements at 132.03 in EUR/JPY, at 154.75 in GBP/JPY and at 101.68 in USD/JPY.

BMO

• Disappointment from the BoJ and the subsequent news conference by Kuroda, has seen USD/JPY fall again, along with risk in general. It feels that this is a phase of liquidation/capitulation, which may not be over yet. Further pressure on emerging markets, and equities continue cause pain. Think this is a case of staying nimble and pick your levels on an intraday basis. 
• JPY gamma came off first thing today with the event risk out of the way, although as spot has carved a huge range over the session and continues to push lower everything is coming right back. 1 month was down to 15 from 15.55 before the BOJ, although this has retraced remarkably back to 15.5. It still seems the market is short some downside, and the vols will continue to hold up pretty well as the gamma has been performing. The 1 week was down to 16.5 from 20.5 last night, but these also have retraced now to around 17.25. 

AUD

Barclays

• With Asia EM under pressure and NAB business conditions weaker Aud tries key support under 0.9400 again. Holds for now but with bounces shallow look set for another attempt at some stage.
• There is little reason to buck the trend at this stage so sell rallies remains the strategy of choice.
• Labour force data Wednesday likely the next key determinant of near term direction.

Goldman

• NAB survey shows a mild improvement but not as much as many may have expected given the rate cut and fall in the AUD. Home loans similarly fairly subdued but the underlying trend remains positive. 
• AUD continues to trade very heavily and trades through the 0.9388 2011 lows overnight with stops triggered induced by the fall in AUDJPY. The price action is compelling from a bears perspective but we are mindful still of the scale of positioning into Thursday employment report. 
• Given the streets downward revisions to GDP forecasts and how much is priced for July’s RBA meeting the asymmetric risk remains for a stronger number, and given the volatility of the series that is a possibility so caution warranted. We remain short and a close below 0.9388 would likely encourage a fresh round of model selling. Topside yesterdays highs of 0.9481 the immediate resistance but the market not really looking to stop until the post payroll highs of 0.9675 now.

GBP

Barclays

• The UK housing market is gathering steam with the RICS house price balance showing sales at their highest levels since summer 2009.
• Cbl inches towards last weeks high and eurgbp static.
• We are short eurgbp but with the dollar once again under pressure it might be the case of further gains for cbl, good luck.

Goldman

• Massive move in green short sterling and out yesterday (-20bps at one point) and the move continuing today (greens -7bps now), much of which is some unwind of the Carney received positions but also in sympathy with the broader sell off in fixed income globally as treasuries push to new lows post the S&P upgrade on the US sovereign credit from negative to stable. 
• Interestingly the move has yet to have any notable knock on effect in currency space (this time over a week ago the market was aggressively adding to long dollar positions) but today outside of AUD and JPY very little interest in G10 space. 
• Regardless , the data set from the UK (another better RICS) continues to pick up off a low base and in cable 1.5680 / 1.5700 remains significant through which most of the cable bears would throw in the towel for those that still hold onto residual cash shorts. 
• Intra-day given the inability of GBP to push on, cable should be a sell risking 1.5620 with EURGBP failing to gain any real traction below 0.8480. Orderbook however remains light and while we like the risk reward of being short pounds now it feels like we have one more wash out to come.

Citi

• GBP remains well supported below 1.55, and I continue to see models cutting shorts. I think this demonstrates the extent of USD longs that remain out there, and so cable is a buy on dips for the time. The caveat to this is the data at 9.30, which will be closely watched. Offers now remain at previous post NFP high 1.5605/10 and then up towards the high of the squeeze 1.5685. GBP/commonwealths remain super bid and the trend is very much in place. I advocated buying 1.63 in GBPAUD and we now approach 1.66, and there is no reason to fight the trend. EURGBP remains a valueless wash.  

JP Morgan

• Cable also remains vulnerable, but keeps the door open for a proper test of the main resistance zone between 1.5703 and 1.5784/88 (200DMA/C=A/61.8 %) as long as hourly trend line support at 1.5490 is not broken on hourly close.