- extended weak economic activity;
- growth subject to downside risk;
- risk of inflation;
- lack of banking capital and lack of action on structural reforms.
- See here and here.
Wow what a fucking party pooper that man. Anyway, I was building shorts in anticipation of further bearish moves but the playbook went out the window when I got out due to (what I thought were strong bullish) headlines related to Cyprus getting the bailout cheque. The chart below shows what happened.
Around the same time I flipped long, I went long EURJPY. Now in retrospect that first entry was not really a smart one because I was simply trying a correlation move without much further justification. I was eventually punished as the market moved 100 pips against me. Fortunately it stablized in Asia as the market await for BOJ news. Forexlive and FXWW kept me up to date, announcement was expected around 0330GMT (around mid afternoon Melbourne time).
The chart below shows what eventually happened. But what is not clear is the sudden 40 pip selloff by trigger happy EURJPY bears around 0320GMT? I was shitting myself at that point because I was already 30-40 pips down from my averaged entry. I wont lie, I felt rising panic to close off the trade early, but I held because I was (a) desperate and (b) unconvinced by that move because of:
- how broadly the EURJPY was supported evident in the basing price action over NY & Asia, and
- how quickly the market immediately bought up the currency back to median levels...I estimate probably over the next 5-10 minutes.
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