Thursday, May 2, 2013

Terrible trading through the ECB rate announcement

Well the day started off alright, but ended very badly tonight.

The rate decision was an expected cut, but Euro zoomed up instead (after rising from a recent low of 2960 six trading sessions ago to a high ECB announcement high of 3220.

I sold on the first hesitation in price action, my thinking was that the initial spike was done and logic would reassert itself as traders saw the opportunity to sell the EURUSD at a good price around 3200. This in fact turned out to be a great decision.  But, I failed to capitalise because I got scared out of it as I was getting smashed by the EURJPY trade and I wanted to take risk off in EURUSD around breakeven. As things stand, EURUSD now trades 3070 so I absolutely dropped the ball on this one.



In EURJPY, things went sour when it exploded north after my entry. When it hit -135 pips all I could think about was survival. The market was moving fast, and moving against logic. The incredible reversal came after Draghi announced the ECB would be open to further cuts (implying negative rates)...but by now I've tilted so hard that I was incapable of thinking straight, let alone executing properly.

The below chart shows the carnage.


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